Tuesday Play Tracking: Streaming vs Cable vs Broadcast, Time is a Flat Circle?!
Corrections, The New Information and do services change the time of games
I got Texas Tech wrong last week and, honestly, I’m not sure where I even went wrong but I fixed it. Thanks to the new addition to the squadron that you will meet very soon.
This isn’t even a correction for you all, just for myself, but I have to put it out into the atmosphere because I was about to change Miami’s plays per game but then realized “oh they didn’t play, so they went up when I was on autopilot but didn’t actually change.”
Basically, bye weeks are now going to become a weekly character as we move into October and November.
Last week’s chart:
Plus, a new addition to my world so that I can feel way more comfortable on the calculator:
Reminds me of my mom’s calculator she had to do grades and there might be another new update next week because my brother is coming over. We are going to talk about the house we co-own in Fayetteville, but he is also going to do the formula magic on the spreadsheet so I just have to type one thing and then the computer does the work.
I am learning to trust the machines.
But for now, calculator.
This week’s chart:
So, what do we have? Let’s see:
-Plays are going up. Michigan, New Mexico, WKU, LSU all up.
-Texas Tech, in a weird win is down. Amazing how the time and the plays worked in concert but it was also their best performance of the season. A lot more success on the ground (similar amount of run plays called but more success), fewer pass plays and that shortens a game and you only need 59 plays to win by double digits. Basically, the Michigan model for the bulk of the season.
-We tee it up year over year:
Did I use YOY right? Big time down in Miami, Michigan, Texas Tech (this week had a lot to do with that). Time up at LSU and New Mexico. Basically the same at Army, WKU.
I honestly don’t know what we’re learning. Plays are all over the place. Time is up and down. Competitive games seem to take longer but also, sometimes way shorter.
I think there is something to starting to chart networks.
That’s my big takeaway: Broadcast vs Cable vs Streaming. And honestly, it is a lot of work but I do think that might be the kernel we’ve been looking for from the inception of this project. We started with the rules and that changing games but it might have nothing to do with rules and a lot more to do with (in the Disney fam) ABC vs ESPN2 vs ESPN+. Or Fox, FS1 and FS2. Or NBC vs Peacock.
Maybe that is the kicker?
Let me know. And as always…
Cheers!!
I'm glad to hear your brother is helping you out with this. I was talking out loud listening to HITD, asking why you're using spreadsheets but not their functionality. You're gonna be a freak in those sheets.
Since your brother is coming over, he can add a standard deviation calculation for each team in excel. In this way, you can better understand if rule changes are effecting play count or if it could just be randomness.
Second you can use the correlation and R squared excel functions to test if other factors are affecting the play count stat. You could use an offensive or defensive SP+ rating versus play count. I suspect offensive or defensive competency or lack their off might factor into the play count. Weather might be another factor to test.
Third, it might be a worthwhile to have a discussion on how to manage outliers. So the single game of just 45 plays for Michigan might alter the whole season average. It might be rational to exclude that data point. Anyway somethings to consider..